The upcoming Nigerian 2019 election is shaping up to be a big tussle between the front runners of the 2 main political parties APC and PDP, on one side you have the incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari and on the other side Atiku Abubakar.
Despite the fact that the political landscape is cramped with a number of other contenders such as
- Donald Duke -Former Governor Cross River State
- Omoyele Sowore - Publisher Sahara News
- Fela Durotoye - Political Party Alliance For Nigeria
- Oby Ezekwesili -Former Federal Minister
- Bukola Saraki - Senate President
- Sule Lamido - Former Governor Jigwa
- Chike Ukaegbu - Founder of Startup 52
- Remi Sonaiya - A Former University Lecturer
- Rabiu Kwakanso - Former Governor of Kano State
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| Omoyele Sowore |
There is no doubt some of these contenders such as Sowore in particular have gained a lot of traction and popularity and increasingly seem to be advocating fresh radical ideas and solutions to the problems of Nigeria, however the nature and structure of Nigeria's political landscape means that the chances of any of them causing a political upset and beating the 2 two from runners Buhari and Atiku is very unlikely due the sheer financial clout and massive political machinery of the main political parties PDP and APC.
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| Recyling The Old Guard |
So once again it seems we are about to recycle the old guard Buhari is now over 75 years old was a former military head of state back in 1983, was elected again as President in 2015 after riding on a popular anti-corruption wave to beat the then incumbent Goodluck Jonathan while Atiku is also over 71 years served 2 terms as vice president in 1998 to former president Olusegun Obasanjo and then unsuccessfully run for the presidency in 2007 but lost the election to the late Umaru Yar Adua.
What are the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the 2 contenders.
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| Atiku Abubakar |
Atiku is from the fulani elite of the North Western Adamawa State where he has a strong following while Buhari also a fulani is from Katsina state in the North East this means Atiku is likely to split Buhari's ethnic Northern power base.
His choice of Peter Obi as running mate and his popularity and reputation as an astute businessman with a working knowledge of how the country's economy works, he once headed the country's economic management team under the Obasanjo government means that he should also do well in the S South and S East where the PDP is the party of choice.
He is also likely to pick up votes in the S.West where Buhari may have made made inroads in the last election but many are now disappointed in his performance especially with regard to the economy which at the best has been sluggish since he took power and his failure to crackdown on the violent activities of Fulani herdsmen in some parts of the country.
Atiku will not have this problem he is a smooth consummate politican with great ability to reach out to most sectors of the ethnic divide that is Nigeria.
Atiku is also slighly younger than Buhari and more importantly has not been dogged by issues with regard to his health (at least not to our knowledge) Buhari has faced rumours regarding his well being since the start of his tenure which just will not go away, he spent over 3 months receiving treatment out of the country in Saudi Arabia and more recently there have been stories circulating of his demise and replacement by a clone lookalike or body double in ASO Rock - this story may sound far fetched and more of a 'Fake News' campaign but many believe it and it's another potential nail to Buhari's proverbial political coffin's which can only help to embolden his detractors and favour Atiku's cause.
So on paper at least you could say that Atiku is in a very strong position to cause an upset and unseat an incumbent president once again, however he does have a number of weak points which could still put the brakes on his political ambition.
Integrity and credibility:
He is very much part of the old guard of politicians who have been at the helm of the countries affairs for the past 30 years who many see as having nothing new to offer.
After having cross carpeted from APC to PDP he is surrounding by the same crop of "business as usual politicians" whose only ideology seems to be to move from one party to another in a bid to further their own political ambitions and selfish agendas.
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| Olusegun Obasanjo |
Corruption:
A damming assessment by his former Boss Olusegun Obasanjo who wrote him off as greedy, untrustworthy, corrupt and over ambitious has stuck to him like mud on a rainy day despite the fact the the two of them recently patched up their differences and he has now received a ringing endorsement from Obasanjo who also advised Buhari not to run for a second term.
Voter Apathy:
Same sh**t different tins!! many voters out there especially the younger generation do not see much difference between Buhari and Atiku and would prefer that they both step aside to allow someone much younger with fresh ideas to be given the chance these voters will probably not vote for either of them.
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| Muhammadu Buhari |
Glorified Cattle rearer or Anti Corruption Crusader:
Despite Buhuri's perceived shortcomings which I have already mentioned and disappointment by huge swathes of the electorate who believe that he has failed to live up to expectations or deliver on his promises of CHANGE and a better life for Nigerians, there are still many voters out there who believe that he has done enough to deserve a second term, there is no doubt that he has at least made some kind of efforts to curtail corruption in the country with a number of high profile cases being prosecuted by the EFCC.
He has can also boast that he has been able to downgrade the capabilities and activities of that dreaded terrorist sect Boko Harem who seemed to be almost able operate with impunity during the tenure of his predecessor Goodluck Jonathan. However the battle is far from won against Boko Harem who are still active and able to carry out attacks in the North East and most recently the country is again beginning to experience an upsurge in their activities with our soldiers once again complaining about being outgunned and lack of adequate weapons.
In addition other security problems are still very evident with far too many incidents of ethnic and communal violence across the the country during Buhari's tenure especially with regard to the Fulani herdsmen.
So why do some voters still seem to have faith in him I believe it's a case of "better the devil you know". Despite his shortcomings and failures Buhari still has an image of honesty and integrity which is almost impossible to find amongst other politicians many still blame the alleged cabal around him for his failures rather than him and believe that he can still bring some kind of positive change to the country if given enough time - ie we may be feeling the pain now in order the reap the benefits later, more importantly many still do not trust Atiku and see him as an opportunist out to loot the country once again - in such a context Buhari is still seen as the better of two bad choices.
Buhari also has one major trump card - he is the incumbent which means he has full control of the country's resources financial, legislative, military, the police and judiciary with the authority to sway things his way which in Africa speak usually means rigging the election results in areas that suit him.
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| Bola Ahmed Tinubu |
So back to the big question, who should we put money on? your guess is a good as mine Atiku looks good on paper but nothing is guaranteed I suspect big players like APC Chieftain Bola Ahmed Tinubu will have a big role to play on what happens in Lagos and the S.West will he like Obasanjo switch sides and endorse Atiku or stick with Buhari?.
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| Nnamdi Kanu |
The sudden re- appearance of Biafra Frontman Nnamdi Kanu on the scene and how both Atiku and Buhari react and respond to him may also have a strong influence on the S.South and S.East vote. I would also think Buhari's actions and may I say utterances over the next few months leading up to the election will be crucial in determining whether he can claw back some of his lost goodwill with the Nigerian electorate - and he now needs to prove that he is actually still alive!!.
So all said and done the clock is ticking and the countdown to March 2019 has started in earnest what is almost certain is that it's going to be another bumpy ride for Nigeria.
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